In a recent episode of Potomac Watch by the Wall Street Journal Opinion, the hosts Kate Bachelder Odell and Jillian Melchior delved into the implications of Ukraine’s recent military success, which saw them seizing approximately 1,000 square kilometers of Russian territory. The discussion was sparked by remarks from U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham, who hailed Ukraine’s efforts as “bold and brilliant.”

Ukraine’s Unprecedented Incursion into Russian Territory

Ukraine's Unprecedented Incursion into Russian Territory
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As Melchior explained, Ukraine’s recent offensive caught the Russian military completely off-guard. The Ukrainian forces managed to penetrate 12 kilometers deep into Russian territory along a 40-kilometer front. Despite the fluid nature of the situation, the operation marks a significant escalation in the conflict, with Ukrainian troops now holding a substantial area within Russia. This operation directly challenges the long-standing assumption that Russian territory was untouchable.

Vladimir Putin’s Miscalculation

Vladimir Putin's Miscalculation
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Odell and Melchior discussed how Russian President Vladimir Putin had previously assumed that his territory was invulnerable to Ukrainian attacks, allowing him to wage war against Ukraine with relative impunity. This assumption has now been proven dangerously incorrect. The hosts noted that this lapse in Russian defense suggests a level of complacency and underestimation of Ukrainian capabilities, a grave error for Putin.

Ukrainian Strategy and Execution

Ukrainian Strategy and Execution
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Jillian Melchior provided insight into the strategic genius behind the operation, led by Ukraine’s top general, Oleksandr Syrskyi. Syrskyi was also responsible for the successful 2022 Kharkiv counter-offensive, which similarly blindsided Russian forces. The current operation benefits from poorly defended Russian positions and inexperienced conscripts, further enabling Ukraine’s rapid territorial gains.

Implications for Russian Military Strategy

Implications for Russian Military Strategy
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The hosts emphasized that this unexpected incursion by Ukrainian forces could force Russia to rethink its military strategy. If Russia needs to defend its own territory along the 621-kilometer border with Ukraine, it will have to divert significant resources and manpower, weakening its offensive capabilities elsewhere. This could mark a turning point in the conflict, with Ukraine seizing the initiative.

The West’s Role in Consolidating Ukrainian Gains

The West's Role in Consolidating Ukrainian Gains
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Odell and Melchior turned their focus to how the West, particularly the United States, can support Ukraine in capitalizing on these gains. Odell criticized the West for previously missing opportunities to arm Ukraine adequately before the Russian forces dug in. Now, she argues, the West should remove remaining restrictions on the types of weapons Ukraine can use, allowing them to strike deeper into Russian territory and disrupt supply lines more effectively.

Lifting Restrictions on Ukrainian Military Actions

Lifting Restrictions on Ukrainian Military Actions
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Melchior concurred, stressing that the United States needs to fully support Ukraine by lifting any remaining limits on their military actions. This includes providing advanced weaponry and allowing Ukraine to strike at Russian positions within Russia itself. Without these restrictions, Ukraine could more effectively counter Russian aggression and protect its own territory.

Reassurance and Commitment from Western Leaders

Reassurance and Commitment from Western Leaders
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The hosts also highlighted the importance of clear and unwavering support from Western leaders. As the U.S. presidential election looms, Melchior suggested that candidates should offer strong reassurances to Ukraine regarding continued U.S. military and financial support. This would provide Ukraine with the certainty it needs to plan and execute future operations.

The Broader Implications for Russia

The Broader Implications for Russia
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Both Odell and Melchior agreed that this operation challenges more than just Russia’s territorial integrity; it undermines the Kremlin’s narrative of inevitable victory. If Ukraine can maintain control over this newly seized territory, it will not only boost Ukrainian morale but also send a powerful message to Russian citizens and soldiers alike about the vulnerability of their government’s position.

“It’s About Time”

“It’s About Time”
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People in the comments shared their thoughts: “Oddly enough the same roads used in 1941 by someone else which is the exact reason for the war today but of course a tank that runs out of fuel is useless.”

Another person said: “It’s about time with all the money the USA has sent them Christ”

One commenter added: “It’s to help shore up their failing southern line. The Confederates did the same thing in Kentucky and Maryland. You use an offensive strike to forcibly divert enemy troops from an offensive position that is threatening a defensive line. They have taken massive losses in the South, so this raid is intended to force Putin to adjust his line and move troops around. It’s smart, but it’s also very risky. If Russia cuts them off, they’ll be wiped out.”

A New Phase in the Ukraine Conflict

A New Phase in the Ukraine Conflict
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In conclusion, Odell and Melchior argued that Ukraine’s recent success could signal a new phase in the conflict. With the right support from the West, Ukraine could continue to press its advantage, forcing Russia into a more defensive posture and potentially leading to a shift in the overall trajectory of the war. The hosts made it clear: this is not just a battlefield victory for Ukraine, but a strategic inflection point with far-reaching consequences.

Effect on Offensive Operations

Effect on Offensive Operations
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What are your thoughts? How might Russia’s need to defend its own territory affect its ability to sustain offensive operations elsewhere, particularly in Ukraine? Could this successful Ukrainian operation inspire other nations facing similar threats to adopt more aggressive defensive strategies? What role should the United States and its allies play in supporting Ukraine as it continues to challenge Russia’s military capabilities?

To hear the full discussion, watch the video on Wall Street Journal Opinion’s YouTube channel here.